public affairs analysis briefs

Analysis: The June Report Card as Election Trigger

June 2009 | public affairs

Background

Like millions of school children around the world, the Conservative Government has been waiting to see whether or not it will win approval for its June Report Card. Also, like those same children, the results of their report card review will determine whether or not they get their vacations or have to go to summer school.

On June 11, 2009, Prime Minister Harper presented the Government of Canada’s second report card on the delivery of its fiscal stimulus package, as required by the Liberal Party of Canada’s conditions of support for the January budget. Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff says the reports are intended to “ensure that the Government keeps its promises to Canadians” and described the report cards as putting the Government “on probation”. In fact, the Liberal Party even went so far as to create a web site called “onprobation.ca”.

The Report

The report was released at an event staged in Cambridge, Ontario – a former Mecca for manufacturing jobs, hit hard by the global economic down turn – that featured a rehearsed “interview” between Prime Minister Stephen Harper and newly appointed Senator and former journalist Mike Duffy. The tone was very positive, focusing on the accomplishments delivered in the 72 days since Budget ’09 was delivered in the House of Commons.

The report spells out in detail what the Government has delivered so far on its commitments as a percentage, total cash value and by province. Highlights include:

• 3000 projects are underway across the country;
• the total value of the projects is roughly $22.7billion;
• the report confirms the government’s predictions for a $50.2billion deficit for this fiscal year; and
• as a result of the recession, the Government of Canada will spend an additional $5.5billion on Employment Insurance (EI) this fiscal year.

The government’s key messages focus on the unprecedented steps that have been taken since January and repeat the message that 80% of projects are underway but emphasize that the plan is designed to run over two years. The government is also keen to strike a tone that makes clear the opposition are the ones playing partisan games, not the Conservative Party.

The Response

While not automatic confidence motions, the intention of the Liberal Party is to use one of the report cards in connection with an Opposition Day Motion (a motion in the House of Commons put forward by one of the Opposition parties instead of the Government) to create the opportunity to force and election on their timetable.

Even before Mr. Harper released the report card, NDP Leader Jack Layton and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe had announced they would not be supporting the government on the Estimates or any other matters of confidence. Their basic talking point is that the money from the stimulus programming isn’t flowing fast enough or to the right places, though both parties disagree on where it should be going. It seems reasonable to suggest that both the third and fourth parties in the House of Commons are, in fact, motivated by a need to put the burden of election timing on the Liberal Party rather than themselves. By declaring their opposition early, they are able to continue demonstrating their opposition to Mr. Harper’s government while at the same time forcing the real decision on Mr. Ignatieff.

Mr. Ignatieff – no stranger to grading papers – took the weekend to consider the Prime Minister’s grade. His early assessment was that while no one wanted a summer election – himself included – it was his responsibility to seriously consider the Government’s response to his probation conditions. On Monday morning, Mr. Ignatieff met the Ottawa Press Gallery at 11 am and pronounced that his continued support for the Conservative Government was contingent on Mr. Harper making changes to the employment insurance (EI) system. This is an issue Ignatieff first raised at his coronation by Party faithful in Vancouver at the first of May and it has been a political football since then. Mr. Harper has refused to amend the EI formula to provide a set of universal qualifications (Liberals have asked that it be based on the most generous rules, generally found in Atlantic Canada) on the grounds that people would qualify for benefits after too few hours of work. Even in his ultimatum press conference Mr. Ignatieff indicated he was willing to negotiate on the exact terms of a national EI standard.

Analysis

While many have been giving the likelihood of an election this spring long odds, there has been a certain logic for Mr. Ignatieff to force an early election. These include early signals of recovery, a Conservative advertising campaign that may become more effective the longer it runs and current polls show a significant improvement in the Liberals’ results from last fall, those catastrophic results were a serious low water mark for the party.. So while neither of the two main political parties will be keen to campaign in the hot summer months we may end up in a campaign that, outwardly, all political parties in Ottawa say they do not want. At the same time, the NDP and Bloc are almost certain to loose seats in the next federal election– a serious de-motivator for their MPs and strategists.

Mr. Ignatieff spoke about “reasonable people making reasonable compromises” at his news conference. The challenge for Mr. Harper is whether to make those compromises that might avoid a summer election. The challenge for Mr. Ignatieff is whether making those compromises will make him look like a weak leader. And the challenge for the other parties is whether to stick to their earlier opposition to the government, even if that means Canadians may end up in a campaign where they may loose seats.

In short, we may soon be into an election everyone claims to not want… but happens because no one can find a way out of their increasingly entrenched positions. One can’t help but think of the World War I novel “The Guns of August” – a great summer read, if there’s no campaign.

What it means for GCI clients

Uncertainty will continue to the be the watchword in Ottawa as the minority government trades blows with the opposition in the run up to an inevitable election campaign. If there is no election, the summer months will provide a tremendous opportunity to move regulatory and policy issues through the government before the bell rings for another round this fall. It would behoove anyone with long-term issues to ensure that both of the main federal parties are aware of those issues and are on side as they fine tune their election platforms for a possible campaign. That’s where GCI comes in.

GCI Group has launched a new Public Affairs practice in Ottawa this year. With a balanced team of government relations professionals, GCI is able to speak to your issues on all sides of this fractious Parliament and across the senior ranks of the Public Service. In both Houses of Parliament, in all Parties and with officials that matter, GCI can help ensure you and your issues get the hearing they deserve.