public affairs analysis briefs

Analysis: Federal Cabinet Shuffle (January 2011)

January 5, 2011| public affairs

Background

On Tuesday, January 4, 2011 Prime Minister Stephen Harper paid his first official visit to Governor General David Johnson at Rideau Hall to shuffle his cabinet. The shuffle involved a small number of ministers and departments (four in total) and was mostly designed to plug holes generated by departures late in 2010 (Jim Prentice left the Environment portfolio to take a role on Bay Street) and ministers who have indicated they will not be running in the next election. The overall message of the shuffle was summed up by the PM's Director of Communications via Twitter: "Staying the course with a competent team."

Highlights

Newly elected MP Julian Fantino (Vaughan, ON) – to the surprise of no one – was elevated to the cabinet for the first time. The former chief of both the OPP and the Toronto Police Service was a significant pick up for the Conservatives and will, no doubt, be a photo-op favourite in the run-up to and during an election. He takes on the role of Minister for Seniors, a key demographic for the Conservative Party.

Fantino's nearly-neighbour Peter Kent (Thornhill, ON) was elevated from his role of Secretary of State within the Foreign Affairs portfolio to become Minister of Environment in his own right.

Long time Alberta MP Ted Menzies (Macleod, AB) gets a significant bump in pay and status as he moves from being the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Finance to become a Minister of State for Finance.

Dianne Ablonczy (Calgary-Nose Hill, AB) takes over a modified version of Peter Kent's former responsibilities as Minister of State for Foreign Affairs but with no particular geographic emphasis.

Anlaysis

The five-hundred pound gorilla in the room continues to be the prospect of an election. While there is no certainty about when a campaign will occur, all players are setting about making preparations – just in case. The most likely trigger in 2011 (other than a change in polling that convinces the government the time is right to pull the pin themselves) is the Budget. If all three opposition parties conspire to defeat the Government, Canadians could be headed to the polls in March/April of this year.

The obvious importance of geography in Mr. Harper's cabinet choices should not be understated; focusing on two strong, telegenic ministers from the Greater Toronto Area is no accident. The Conservatives know that the road to a majority only has so many on ramps and one of them is Ontario's seat-rich 905 areas. By giving both Kent and Fantino roles that will guarantee them camera time, the PM is making a clear declaration that he's planning to take a run at the Liberal Party's traditional "Fortress Toronto." Adding dedicated support at the cabinet level (including the increased staffing budget that comes with the office) to both court seniors and sell the budget is a great example of the government levering the benefits of office in a hyper-political minority situation. This is now a government that is has matured into a full fledged governing party from its history of protest.

What it means for GCI clients

Despite some slight corrections along the way, the Government has charted a fairly clear course and knows both its key demographics and what messages are likely to motivate them. Priorities set in 2010 are unlikely to change and Budget 2011 will certainly not be an exercise in spreading the wealth around. On the contrary, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has been prepositioning himself as the new "Dr. No".

So while solutions that require a regulatory or legislative approach (versus a funding approach) are more likely to meet with success in the coming months, the Government of Canada will still spend over $200 billion in 2011-12. A clear focus on the economy will no doubt continue to be the Government's theme through the Budget and any possible election. But as other G7 countries catch up to – and potentially pass – Canada's post-recession growth, the Government will want to be sure their priorities aren't thrown off track. And they are also keenly aware that other issues can come out of nowhere and derail the best laid plans.

That's where GCI Group comes in. With a balanced team of public affairs professionals, GCI is able to provide with you with the senior counsel and strategy you need to speak to your issues on all sides of this fractious Parliament and across the senior ranks of the public service. In both Houses of Parliament, in all parties and with officials that matter, GCI can help ensure you and your issues get the hearing they deserve.